The chocolate industry is grappling with historically high prices, leading to a potential drop in consumer demand in 2025. Analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast a reduction of at least 1.8% in chocolate consumption over the next year, as reported by Bloomberg.
This decline in demand is expected to contribute to a smaller-than-anticipated shortage in chocolate supply. JPMorgan had previously predicted a deficit of 108,000 tons of cocoa for the 2024-2025 season, but this estimate has now been revised to just 40,000 tons.
Despite a slight decrease in supply, chocolate prices are likely to remain high. Companies are struggling to mitigate the rising cost of cocoa, which has surged dramatically in recent months. Historically priced at around $2,500 per metric ton, cocoa reached an alarming $11,000 per ton in April 2024, and currently sits at approximately $10,000 per ton in New York. JPMorgan analysts highlight that these record prices are dampening demand, with global cocoa grindings expected to contract by at least 1.8% year-on-year.
Recent earnings reports from leading chocolate companies indicate a downturn in the historically strong demand for chocolate. In response, industry players are exploring alternatives to combat the pressures of rising costs. Hershey’s CEO, Michele Buck, revealed that the company is investigating ways to replace cocoa with other ingredients in their products.
As Valentine’s Day approaches, the news of high prices and decreasing demand may be unwelcome to chocolate lovers. However, for those seeking alternative gifts, numerous options remain, from romantic getaways to unique experiences that are sure to charm loved ones this February 14th.
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